Abstract:
National wheat research and development efforts mainly focus on enhancement of
production and productivity to ensure wheat food security and self-sufficiency.
Wheat production and productivity growth can be achieved using irrigation,
adoption of improved agricultural technologies and farm mechanization. Currently,
federal and regional governments have extensively focused on increasing wheat
production and productivity to achieve wheat self-sufficiency and further generate
exportable production. These entail policy and production decisions based on the
analyses of historical wheat production and consumption growth rates and trends as
well as their future prospects in relation to current production practices. To examine
issues on policy and production decision, this article provides information on wheat
production and consumption trends, and future prospects in line with the current
wheat production interventions. Historical wheat production and consumption data
were used to achieve the objective of the study. The study finds out that wheat
production increases, on average, by 6.2% per annum while annual wheat
consumption increases on average by 261,120 tons if past production and
consumption practices continue with no major and continuous production and
productivity enhancement interventions. Production and consumption gap, and price
increase if there are no major yield and production improvements. To offset the gap,
national average wheat yield need to increase annually by 1.58 quintals per hectare
with current wheat production area. Ensuring wheat self-sufficiency and import
substitution need continuous and sustainable current wheat production interventions
in lowland areas using irrigation, and focus on yield increment of major food
commodities. Private sector involvement and investment in wheat production,
processing, and marketing is decisive for the success of interventions to ensure
wheat self-sufficiency and export need.
