AN ASSESSMENT OF ETHIOPIA'S MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS AND RESOURCES FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1961 -70 EC

Abstract

The purpose o f this study is to examine Ethiopia’s requirements for different categories o f manpower in the light o f the government’s plans for economic development, and to establish on the basis of these requirements tentative estimates o f the out-turn o f the educational system th a t would be needed for the implementation of the development programme. It is desirable th at the estimate o f requirements should be made for as long a time into the future as is practicable if the educational system is to be linked to the requirements of economic development and employment. In the present case forecasts have been made for a period o f ten years, 1961-70 EC covering the Third and F ourth Five Year Plan periods. Although some may perhaps consider th a t this is not a long enough period from the point of view o f education planning, practical limitations regarding the availability o f the necessary economic and other data compel a modest approach. 2. The study covers all sectors of the economy. The manpower requirements o f the Third and Fourth Plans have been estimated on the basis of the probable growth rates o f the national product during these periods and the employment likely to be generated in various industries and services as a result. An occupational breakdown of the manpower requirements has been obtained by applying industry/occupation matrices to employment estimates. An estimate of the stock of skilled manpower at the beginning o f the Third Five Year Plan period was also obtained by a similar method. 3. The industry/occupation matrices were prepared on the basis of a manpower survey which was carried out in order to obtain the occupational composition o f employment in different sectors. In the absence of a population census or other source o f occupational data, a survey had to be carried out to obtain this basic information. The whole of the public sector and all establishments employing 10 persons or more in the private sector were brought within the scope of the survey. In the case o f some sectors, especially small-scale industry, commerce and services, enterprises employing less than 10 persons were also included. In addition to the number of persons employed and their occupational composition, information was also called for regarding existing vacancies and the future requirements for additional personnel. In the case o f private establishments data regarding unpaid family workers, if any, were also obtained. The survey o f the private sector which was carried out with the help o f field investigators, covered a total of 17,101 establishments employing 176,927 persons in 70 towns in Ethiopia, including all those with a population of 5,000 persons or more.